1. Abstract
A look at the development of models determining field goal probability, and related studies of meaningful predictor variables. Logistic regression is the most common way of incorporating different predictor values, with a single example of a neural network. Distance is unfailingly the strongest predictor of success, and by an order of magnitude over any other variable. Useful environmental variables also include wind, rain, and altitude. The question of clutch kicking is discussed ad nauseum, with a general consensus of there being little effect if any, and icing the kicker similarly finds little support in most works, in some cases even contraindicated.
