1. Abstract
A continuation of a series of works developing the individual parts of a future third-down decision-making model using discrete individual models. Raw data for P(FG) shows that P(FG)GOOD declines linearly with increasing kick distance, as does EP(FG). Five different classification models were used to assess P(FG) based on various features relevant to field goal attempts (distance, elevation, temperature, wind, weather). The random forest model proved most effective, with the best correlation measures both by RMSE and R2. Distance remains the strongest and best predictor of P(FG), dwarfing all other factors.
