Saturday, May 9, 2020

Getting Things Started: Kickoffs in U Sports

1. Abstract

Kickoffs in U Sports are examined according to their net, gross, and spread yardage, as well as their EP values, considering both the point estimates of the mean and the overall distributions. Kickoffs from the 75-yard line, associated with safeties, are found to behave differently from other kickoffs, generally associated with touchdowns. This leads to the creation of the “good team hypothesis,” discussed in further detail below. The impact of rouges is also discussed, especially vis-à-vis their value in punting situations, owing to differing rules for kicks out-of-bounds. Rouges are much more desirable for kickoffs, where a “coffin corner” kick is not an option. While gross kick yardage varies with field position, kick return distance is only minimally impacted by field position, and is much more stable across field position. This is consistent with extant domain wisdom, that a longer kick allows a longer return before the coverage team can meet it.

Three Downs Away: P(1D) In U Sports Football

1-Abstract A data set of U Sports football play-by-play data was analyzed to determine the First Down Probability (P(1D)) of down & d...