1-Abstract
A data set of U Sports football play-by-play data was analyzed to determine the First Down Probability (P(1D)) of down & distance states. P(1D) was treated as a binomial variable, and confidence intervals were determined iteratively until convergence at the 10-10 level. For each down, fitted regression lines were added to enable discussion of overall trends with respect to distance.
Only points with a minimum N of 100 instances were considered. 1st down trended linearly, bearing only points at 5-yard intervals. 2nd and 3rd downs followed an exponential decay fit. Special attention was given to the non-zero asymptotes of these functions, and their implications towards the nature of the game. A review of & Goal data failed to provide any deeper insight.