Friday, August 31, 2018

Appendix to Going Pro: Developing a CFL Play-by-Play Database

6-Appendix 1: List of Games

The table below provides a complete list of all the games for which play-by-play data has been found and included in the database as of the date of publication. The games are listed chronologically by date played, oldest game first.

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Going Pro: Developing a CFL Play-by-Play Database

1-Abstract

CFL play-by-play data was collected from the official website into a single database. Idiosyncrasies in the structure of the data required the development of a VBA HTML scraper into a database. The data was parsed with a method that parallels the U Sports database, making it available for future investigation.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Three Downs Away: P(1D) In U Sports Football

1-Abstract

A data set of U Sports football play-by-play data was analyzed to determine the First Down Probability (P(1D)) of down & distance states. P(1D) was treated as a binomial variable, and confidence intervals were determined iteratively until convergence at the 10-10 level. For each down, fitted regression lines were added to enable discussion of overall trends with respect to distance.
Only points with a minimum N of 100 instances were considered. 1st down trended linearly, bearing only points at 5-yard intervals. 2nd and 3rd downs followed an exponential decay fit. Special attention was given to the non-zero asymptotes of these functions, and their implications towards the nature of the game. A review of & Goal data failed to provide any deeper insight.

Due North: Analytics Research in Canadian Football

1-Abstract

A broad survey of the history of scholarship in Canadian football analytics as relates to in-game decision-making. Works discussed span from 1982 to 2016, and while most focus on CFL data there does exist some mention of Canadian university football research (then CIS, now known as U Sports). Eleven different works covering a variety of topics create the basis of modern analytics in Canadian football.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Appendix to It's the Data, Stupid: Developing a U Sports Football Database

6- Appendix 1: List of Games

The table below provides a complete list of all the games for which play-by-play data has been found and included in the database as of the date of publication. The games are listed chronologically by date played, oldest game first.

It's the Data, Stupid: Development of a U Sports Football Database

1-Abstract

A discussion of the development of a fully parsed database of U Sports football play-by-play data, including the sources and structures of available play-by-play data, examples of common errors in the data and methods to rectify them, and complete discussion of the code, structured as individual functions, used to parse the data into discrete columns. The code used is included within the discussion of each function.  The parsed data forms a relational database of plays that allow further research to be conducted at the individual play level. This database is believed to be the first of its kind for both U Sports and Canadian football in general.

Friday, June 8, 2018

You Play to Win the Game: Win Probability in American Football

1-Abstract

The conclusion of a three-part series discussing the three major fields of research in American football analytics; First Down Probability (P(1D)) (Clement 2018a), Expected Points (EP) (Clement 2018b), and Win Probability (WP). This chapter discusses the existing body of work regarding WP and various models derived to estimate it over the last 30 years. Development in the sophistication  of model-building techniques is an ongoing theme, and better understanding of measures of uncertainty are an emergent topic as competing models enter public view and analytic notions infiltrate the sporting lexicon.

Three Downs Away: P(1D) In U Sports Football

1-Abstract A data set of U Sports football play-by-play data was analyzed to determine the First Down Probability (P(1D)) of down & d...